An investigation of a measles outbreak in Japan and Taiwan, China, March–May 2018

Western Pacific Surveillance and Response

卷:9

Ryo Kinoshita¹  Sungmok Jung¹  Kazuki Shimizu¹  Hyojung Lee¹  Hiroshi Nishiura¹  Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov¹  Keita Yoshii¹ 

[1] Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University.;

关键词: outbreak investigation;    epidemic;    Morbillivirus;    basic reproduction number;    importation;    superspreader;   

DOI  :  10.5365/wpsar.2018.9.2.005

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Objective: To investigate a measles outbreak that spread to Japan and Taiwan, China during March–May 2018, exploring the characteristics of the super-spreading event.Methods: A contact investigation of the index case and reconstruction of the epidemiological dynamics of measles transmission were conducted. Employing a mathematical model, the effective reproduction number was estimated for each generation of cases.Results and discussion: A single index case gave rise to a total of 38 secondary cases, 33 in Japan and five in Taiwan, China. Subsequent chains of transmission were observed in highly vaccinated populations in both Japan and Taiwan, China. The effective reproduction number of the second generation was >1 for both Japan and Taiwan, China. In Japan, the reproduction number was estimated to be <1 during the third generation. Vaccination of susceptible individuals is essential to prevent secondary and tertiary transmission events.

【 授权许可】

Unknown