Statistical Assessment of Relationships Between Labor Market Indicators and Inflation in the Russian Economy

Statistika i Èkonomika

卷:18

Alexander Yu. Andryukhin¹ 

[1] Kemerovo State University;

关键词: inflation;    unemployment;    labor market;    russian economy;    employment of the population;    income of the population;    informal employment;    consumer price index;   

DOI  :  10.21686/2500-3925-2021-4-9-21

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Purpose of the study. Analysis of inflationary factors associated with the labor market and employment is usually limited to the study of the relationship between the consumer price index and the Phillips curve. Therefore, the study examines the potential impact of a wider range of labor and employment market indicators on inflationary processes in the Russian economy. The purpose of the paper is to identify and assess the links between unemployment, on the one hand, and indicators of the labor market, employment, and incomes of the population in the national economy of Russia.Materials and methods. The study used the author’s hypothesis about the possibility of influ-encing inflation not only by unemployment, but also by other indicators of the labor market, such as the share of informal employment or the average working hours per week. The research also studied the impact of the labor market not only on the consumer price index, but also on the basic consumer price index (cleared of the influence of seasonal and administrative factors). The monthly data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for 2016-2020 were used in Russia as a whole. We useda standard apparatus for searching and measuring cause-and-effect relationships (ma-trices of paired correlation coefficients, regression analysis).Results. In the short term, the level of labor force participation and economic activity have a positive relationship with inflation, as they are even lower than the level that could cause inflationary pressure (according to the second order polynomial). In 2017-2018 inflation was positively influ-enced by the size of the nominal accrued wages and the average number of hours worked per week. The traditional impact of the population income and aggregate demand on inflation has manifested itself. But it was insignificant (up to 10 % of inflation variance). This effect occurs only in those years when there are no more powerful inflationary factors. Consequently, cost inflation was fairly limited. In the short term, in some years, there is also a certain positive relationship between the share of people employed in the informal sector and the consumer price index. The rise in the infla-tionary tax on businesses without market power is forcing the majority of workers to be hired infor-mally. In the long term, an increase in the level of labor force participation explains part of the vari-ance of the basic consumer price index (but not related to the general consumer price index). With an increase in economic activity and income, the population acquires a wider range of goods, prices for which are not seasonal and are not administratively regulated.Conclusion. In general, the factors of the labor market and the population’s income are not de-cisive for inflation in the Russian economy, but they explain some of the changes. In the future, it is possible to build more accurate models in which indicators such as the level of labor supply can take a certain place next to the main inflationary factors. The findings of the study can be used when mak-ing decisions in the field of labor market regulation in conjunction with monetary policy.

【 授权许可】

Unknown