Projection of the Near-Future PM2.5 in Northern Peninsular Southeast Asia under RCP8.5

Atmosphere

卷:13

Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen¹  Ronald C. Macatangay²  Vanisa Surapipith² 

[1] Department of Environmental Science, School of Energy and Environment, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailand;

[2] National Astronomical Research Institute of Thailand, Chiang Mai 50180, Thailand;

关键词: PM_2.5;    climate change;    emission change;    NRCM;    biomass burning;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos13020305

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Throughout the year, particularly during the dry season, the northern peninsula of Southeast Asia struggles with air pollution from PM_2.5. In this study, we used the Nested Regional Climate and Chemistry Model (NRCM-Chem) to predict the PM_2.5 concentrations over Southeast Asia’s northern peninsula during the years 2020–2029 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5. In general, the model reasonably shows a good result, including temperature, precipitation, and PM_2.5 concentration, compared to the observation with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.63 to 0.80. However, there were some underestimations for modeled precipitation and temperature and an overestimation for modeled PM_2.5 concentration. As a response to changes in climatic parameters and the emission of PM_2.5’s precursors, PM_2.5 concentrations tend to increase across the region in the range of (+1) to (+35) µg/m³ during the dry season (November to April) and decline in the range of (−3) to (−30) µg/m³ during the wet season (May to October). The maximum increase in PM_2.5 concentrations were found in March by >40 µg/m³.

【 授权许可】

Unknown