Wagner’s law versus Keynesian hypothesis: Evidence from pre-WWII Greece

Panoeconomicus

卷:60

关键词: Wagner’s Law;    economic growth;    ARDL cointegration;    causality;   

DOI  :  10.2298/PAN1304457A

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

With data of over a century, 1833-1938, this paper attempts, for the firsttime, to analyze the causal relationship between income and governmentspending in the Greek economy for such a long period; that is, to gain someinsight into Wagner and Keynesian Hypotheses. The time period of theanalysis represents a period of growth, industrialization and modernizationof the economy, conditions which are conducive to Wagner’s Law but also tothe Keynesian Hypothesis. The empirical analysis resorts to AutoregressiveDistributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration method and tests for the presence ofpossible structural breaks. The results reveal a positive and statisticallysignificant long run causal effect running from economic performance towardsthe public size giving support to Wagner’s Law in Greece, whereas for theKeynesian hypothesis some doubts arise for specific time sub-periods.

【 授权许可】

Unknown