Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5) in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

Frontiers in Earth Science

卷:4

Alexandre A Costa¹  Augusto C. B Barbosa¹  José Brabo Alves¹  Emerson M Silva¹  Sérgio S Sombra¹  Antonio Carlos Santana Dos Santos¹  Francisco C Vasconcelos Junior²  Jacques eServain³  Rosane Rodrigues Chaves⁴ 

[1] Ceará State University;

[2] Federal University of Ceará;

[3] IRD-LOCEAN;

[4] Rio Grande do Norte Federal University (UFRN);

关键词: Climate Change;    variability;    precipitation;    Northeast Brazil;    AR4 and AR5 Models;   

DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2016.00044

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20) and future projections of the AR4 (A2) and AR5 (RCP8.5) experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5) in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn) in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

【 授权许可】

Unknown