Simulating Marginal and Dependence Behaviour of Water Demand Processes at Any Fine Time Scale

Water

卷:11

Christos Makropoulos¹  Ioannis Tsoukalas¹  Panagiotis Kossieris¹  Dragan Savic² 

[1] Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, 15780 Zographou, Greece;

[2] KWR, Water Cycle Research Institute, 3433 PE Nieuwegein, The Nederlands;

关键词: residential water demand;    stochastic simulation;    non-Gaussian distributions;    intermittency;    correlation structure;    linear stochastic models;    Nataf’s joint distribution model;    copula;    urban water management;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w11050885

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Uncertainty-aware design and management of urban water systems lies on the generation of synthetic series that should precisely reproduce the distributional and dependence properties of residential water demand process (i.e., significant deviation from Gaussianity, intermittent behaviour, high spatial and temporal variability and a variety of dependence structures) at various temporal and spatial scales of operational interest. This is of high importance since these properties govern the dynamics of the overall system, while prominent simulation methods, such as pulse-based schemes, address partially this issue by preserving part of the marginal behaviour of the process (e.g., low-order statistics) or neglecting the significant aspect of temporal dependence. In this work, we present a single stochastic modelling strategy, applicable at any fine time scale to explicitly preserve both the distributional and dependence properties of the process. The strategy builds upon the Nataf’s joint distribution model and particularly on the quantile mapping of an auxiliary Gaussian process, generated by a suitable linear stochastic model, to establish processes with the target marginal distribution and correlation structure. The three real-world case studies examined, reveal the efficiency (suitability) of the simulation strategy in terms of reproducing the variety of marginal and dependence properties encountered in water demand records from 1-min up to 1-h.

【 授权许可】

Unknown