Observations and conversations: how communities learn about infection risk can impact the success of non-pharmaceutical interventions against epidemics

BMC Public Health

R. Alexander Bentley¹  Simon Carrignon²  Matthew J. Silk³  Nina H. Fefferman⁴ 

[1] Center for the Dynamics of Social Complexity (DySoC), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;Center for the Dynamics of Social Complexity (DySoC), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;School of Information Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, UK;Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK;National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS), University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA;Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology & Mathematics, University of Tennessee, 447 Hesler Biology Building, 37996, Knoxville, TN, USA;

关键词: Multilayer networks;    Behavioral epidemiology;    Coupled human-natural systems;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-12353-9

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundIndividual behavioural decisions are responses to a person’s perceived social norms that could be shaped by both their physical and social environment. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these environments correspond to epidemiological risk from contacts and the social construction of risk by communication within networks of friends. Understanding the circumstances under which the influence of these different social networks can promote the acceptance of non-pharmaceutical interventions and consequently the adoption of protective behaviours is critical for guiding useful, practical public health messaging.MethodsWe explore how information from both physical contact and social communication layers of a multiplex network can contribute to flattening the epidemic curve in a community. Connections in the physical contact layer represent opportunities for transmission, while connections in the communication layer represent social interactions through which individuals may gain information, e.g. messaging friends.ResultsWe show that maintaining focus on awareness of risk among each individual’s physical contacts promotes the greatest reduction in disease spread, but only when an individual is aware of the symptoms of a non-trivial proportion of their physical contacts (~ ≥ 20%). Information from the social communication layer without was less useful when these connections matched less well with physical contacts and contributed little in combination with accurate information from physical contacts.ConclusionsWe conclude that maintaining social focus on local outbreak status will allow individuals to structure their perceived social norms appropriately and respond more rapidly when risk increases. Finding ways to relay accurate local information from trusted community leaders could improve mitigation even where more intrusive/costly strategies, such as contact-tracing, are not possible.

【 授权许可】

CC BY