Adapted time-varying covariates Cox model for predicting future cirrhosis development performs well in a large hepatitis C cohort

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Tony Van¹  Monica Tincopa²  Brandon Oselio³  Boang Liu⁴  Ji Zhu⁵  Xuefei Zhang⁶  Grace L. Su⁷  George N. Ioannou⁸  Lauren A. Beste⁹  Amit G. Singal^1,10  Akbar K. Waljee^1,11 

[1] Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Internal Medicine, Michigan Medicine, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Michigan Integrated Center for Health Analytics and Medical Prediction (MiCHAMP), Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Gastroenterology Service, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, 2215 Fuller Road, Gastroenterology 111D, 48105, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Internal Medicine, Michigan Medicine, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Gastroenterology Service, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, Seattle, WA, USA;Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA;General Medicine Service, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, Seattle, WA, USA;Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System, Seattle, WA, USA;Harold C. Simmons Comprehensive Cancer Center UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA;Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA;Department of Internal Medicine, Parkland Health and Hospital System, Dallas, TX, USA;Michigan Integrated Center for Health Analytics and Medical Prediction (MiCHAMP), Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Gastroenterology Service, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, 2215 Fuller Road, Gastroenterology 111D, 48105, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Department of Internal Medicine, Michigan Medicine, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Center for Clinical Management Research, VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA;

关键词: Veterans;    Sustained virologic response;    Hepatitis C virus;    Survival model;    Prediction;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12911-021-01711-7

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundPatients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) frequently remain at risk for cirrhosis after sustained virologic response (SVR). Existing cirrhosis predictive models for HCV do not account for dynamic antiviral treatment status and are limited by fixed laboratory covariates and short follow up time. Advanced fibrosis assessment modalities, such as transient elastography, remain inaccessible in many settings. Improved cirrhosis predictive models are needed.MethodsWe developed a laboratory-based model to predict progression of liver disease after SVR. This prediction model used a time-varying covariates Cox model adapted to utilize longitudinal laboratory data and to account for antiretroviral treatment. Individuals were included if they had a history of detectable HCV RNA and at least 2 AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores available in the national Veterans Health Administration from 2000 to 2015, Observation time extended through January 2019. We excluded individuals with preexisting cirrhosis. Covariates included baseline patient characteristics and 16 time-varying laboratory predictors. SVR, defined as permanently undetectable HCV RNA after antiviral treatment, was modeled as a step function of time. Cirrhosis development was defined as two consecutive APRI scores > 2. We predicted cirrhosis development at 1-, 3-, and 5-years follow-up.ResultsIn a national sample of HCV patients (n = 182,772) with a mean follow-up of 6.32 years, 42% (n = 76,854) achieved SVR before 2016 and 16.2% (n = 29,566) subsequently developed cirrhosis. The model demonstrated good discrimination for predicting cirrhosis across all combinations of laboratory data windows and cirrhosis prediction intervals. AUROCs ranged from 0.781 to 0.815, with moderate sensitivity 0.703–0.749 and specificity 0.723–0.767.ConclusionA novel adaptation of time-varying covariates Cox modeling technique using longitudinal laboratory values and dynamic antiviral treatment status accurately predicts cirrhosis development at 1-, 3-, and 5-years among patients with HCV, with and without SVR. It improves upon earlier cirrhosis predictive models and has many potential population-based applications, especially in settings without transient elastography available.

【 授权许可】

CC BY