Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study

BMC Medicine

Ye Yao¹  Jinhua Pan¹  Wenlong Zhu¹  Mengxi Zhang¹  Weibing Wang² 

[1] School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, 200032, Shanghai, China;School of Public Health, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, 200032, Shanghai, China;Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, 200032, Shanghai, China;Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health; Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity; Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Ministry of Education), Fudan University, 138 Yi Xue Yuan Road, 200032, Shanghai, China;

关键词: COVID-19;    Epidemiology;    Incubation period;    Non-pharmaceutical intervention;    SEIR model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12916-021-02178-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundFrom 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions.MethodsPublicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR+q model.ResultsFrom 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025th, 0.975th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases.ConclusionsIncubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

【 授权许可】

CC BY