The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Yan Niu¹  Roger Frutos²  Qiu-ping Chen³  Cheng-long Song⁴  Qing-qing Hu⁵  Wen-long Huang⁶  Chan Liu⁷  Ben-hua Zhao⁷  Pei-hua Li⁷  Li Luo⁷  Mei-jie Chu⁷  Jing-wen Xu⁷  Yao Wang⁷  Bin Deng⁷  Tian-long Yang⁷  Zhuo-yang Li⁷  Xing-chun Liu⁷  Meng Yang⁷  Jie-feng Huang⁷  Jia Rui⁷  Yan-hua Su⁷  Tian-mu Chen⁷  Yuan-zhao Zhu⁷  Wei-kang Liu⁷  Sheng-nan Lin⁷  Zhao Lei⁷  Ze-yu Zhao⁸ 

[1] Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of China;Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France;Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France;Medical Insurance Office, Xiang’an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, People’s Republic of China;Department of Data Science, College of Natural Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA;Division of Public Health, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Utah, USA;Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 76 Jintai Road, Gulou District, Fuzhou, Fujian, People’s Republic of China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, 361102, Xiamen, Fujian, People’s Republic of China;State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, 4221-117 South Xiang’an Road, Xiang’an District, 361102, Xiamen, Fujian, People’s Republic of China;Cirad, UMR 17, Intertryp, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France;

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    Transmissibility;    Age-specific model;    Vaccination strategy;    Effectiveness;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40249-021-00922-4

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundReaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.MethodsWe collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.ResultsA total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45–64 years old.ConclusionsApproximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15–64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.Graphical Abstract

【 授权许可】

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