Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant

Virology Journal

Yuki Furuse¹ 

[1] Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, 852-8523, Nagasaki, Japan;Medical Education Development Center, Nagasaki University Hospital, 1-7-1 Sakamoto, 852-8501, Nagasaki, Japan;Institute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University, 53 Shogoin Kawaharacho, Sakyo-ku, 606-8507, Kyoto, Japan;Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, 606-8501, Kyoto, Japan;

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    COVID-19;    Epidemiology;    Variant;    Transmission;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12985-021-01726-6

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants.

【 授权许可】

CC BY