Exploring injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes at intersections: unbalanced panel mixed ordered probit model

European Transport Research Review

Željko Šarić¹  Joso Vrkljan²  Xuecai Xu³  Daiquan Xiao³ 

[1] Department of Traffic Accident Expertise, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia;Polytechnic “Nikola Tesla”, Bana Ivana Karlovića 16, 53000, Gospić, Croatia;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 430074, Wuhan, China;

关键词: Injury severity;    Pedestrian-vehicle crash;    Unbalanced panel mixed ordered probit model;    Random parameter ordered probit model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12544-021-00524-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Although the pedestrian deaths have been declining in recent years, the pedestrian-vehicle death rate in Croatia is still pretty high. This study intended to explore the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes with panel mixed ordered probit model and identify the influencing factors at intersections. To achieve this objective, the data were collected from Ministry of the Interior, Republic of Croatia from 2015 to 2018. Compared to the equivalent random-effects and random parameter ordered probit models, the proposed model showed better performance on goodness-of-fit, while capturing the impact of exogenous variables to vary among the intersections, as well as accommodating the heterogeneity issue due to unobserved effects. Results revealed that the proposed model can be considered as an alternative to deal with the heterogeneity issue and to decide the factor determinants. The results may provide beneficial insight for reducing the injury severity of pedestrian-vehicle crashes.

【 授权许可】

CC BY