A nomogram model for predicting prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer

World Journal of Surgical Oncology

Zhao long Zhao¹  Yuan yuan Liu²  Guang yao Dai³  Jian Lv⁴  Yan ni Zhang⁵  Zhong xin Li⁶  Yi tao Jia⁷  Peng Guo⁸  Jing li He⁹ 

[1] Department of Anesthesiology, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, No. 12 Jiankang Road, 050011, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Department of Anorectal Surgery, Huanghua General Hospital, No. 262 Xinhua Road, 061100, Huanghua, Hebei, China;Department of Anorectal Surgery, The First Hospital of Shijiazhuang, No. 36, Fanxi Road, 050011, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Department of Emergency, Hebei General Hospital, No. 348 Heping West Road, 050051, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Department of General Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People’s Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200011, Shanghai, China;Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical University, No. 89 Donggang Road, 050000, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Department of Oncology, Hebei General Hospital, 050051, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Department of Plastic Surgery, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, 050011, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;Second Department of Surgery, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, No. 12 Jiankang Road, 050011, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China;

关键词: Colorectal cancer;    Obstruction;    Prognosis;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12957-021-02445-6

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe prognosis of obstructive colorectal cancer (oCRC) is worse than that of nonobstructive colorectal cancer. However, no previous study has established an individualized prediction model for the prognosis of patients with oCRC. We aimed to screen the factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that predicts the individual prognosis of patients with oCRC.MethodsThis retrospective study collected data of 181 patients with oCRC from three medical hospitals between February 2012 and December 2017. Among them, 129 patients from one hospital were used as the training cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used in this training cohort to select independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of oCRC, and a nomogram model was established. The other 52 patients from two additional hospitals were used as the validation cohort to verify the model.ResultsMultivariate analysis showed that carcinoembryonic antigen level (p = 0.037, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.872 [1.065–7.740]), N stage (N1 vs. N0, p = 0.028, HR = 3.187 [1.137–8.938]; N2 vs. N0, p = 0.010, HR = 4.098 [1.393–12.051]), and surgical procedures (p = 0.002, HR = 0.299 [0.139–0.643]) were independent prognostic factors of overall survival in patients with oCRC. These factors were used to construct the nomogram model, which showed good concordance and accuracy.ConclusionCarcinoembryonic antigen, N stage, and surgical method are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in patients with oCRC, and the nomogram model can visually display these results.

【 授权许可】

CC BY