A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

Derek T. Robinson¹  Bo Zhao²  Xuemei Bai³  James Daniell⁴  Yinyin Dou⁵  Jubo Yan⁶  Qiang Zhang⁷  Peijun Shi⁸  Qingxu Huang⁹  Fangjin Xu⁹  Chunyang He⁹ 

[1] Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, N2L 3G1, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada;Department of Geography, University of Washington, 98195, Seattle, WA, USA;Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia;Geophysical Institute and Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76344, Karlsruhe, Germany;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 639818, Singapore, Singapore;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, 810016, Xining, China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;School of Natural Resources, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;

关键词: Earthquake risk;    Global South;    Risk governance;    Urbanization ratio;    Urban sustainability;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s13753-021-00385-z

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas. We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015, and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities. We found that more than two thirds of population growth (or 70% of total population in 2015) and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths (or 307,918 deaths) in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio (percentage of urban population to total population) between 20 and 60%. Holding other factors constant, population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities, while the area of urban land was negatively related. The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low, but after a ratio between 40 and 50% occurs, earthquake fatalities decline. This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation. Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050, more than 50% of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities, enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority.

【 授权许可】

CC BY