Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state

eLife

George N Wong¹  Alexei V Tkachenko²  Sergei Maslov³  Ahmed Elbana⁴  Tong Wang⁵  Nigel Goldenfeld⁶ 

[1] Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States;Center for Functional Nanomaterials, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, United States;Department of Bioengineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States;Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States;Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States;University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, United States;

关键词: epidemic dynamics;    COVID-19;    heterogeneity;    endemic state;    herd immunity;    Viruses;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.68341

来源: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd

【 摘 要 】

It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.

【 授权许可】

CC BY