Trends and factors related to adolescent pregnancies: an incidence trend and conditional inference trees analysis of northern Nicaragua demographic surveillance data

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth

Elmer Zelaya Blandón¹  Oleg Sysoev²  Carina Källestål³  Mariela Contreras⁴  Katarina Ekholm Selling⁴  Lars-Åke Persson⁵  Wilton Pérez⁶  Rodolfo Peña⁷ 

[1] Asociación para el Desarrollo Económico y Sostenible de El Espino (APRODESE), Chinandega, Nicaragua;Nicaraguan Autonomous National University, León (UNAN-León), León, Nicaragua;Department of Computer and Information Science, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden;Department of Dental Research, Public Dental Service, Region Örebro County, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden;Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK;Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama (INCAP), Calzada Roosevelt 6-25, Zona 11, Guatemala, Guatemala;Department of Women’s and Children’s Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden;Pan American Health Organization, Tegucigalpa, Honduras;

关键词: Adolescent pregnancies;    Incidence trend;    Adolescent birth rate;    Adolescent pregnancy rate;    Conditional inference trees;    Data mining;    Predictors;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12884-021-04215-4

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWe aimed to identify the 2001–2013 incidence trend, and characteristics associated with adolescent pregnancies reported by 20–24-year-old women.MethodsA retrospective analysis of the Cuatro Santos Northern Nicaragua Health and Demographic Surveillance 2004–2014 data on women aged 15–19 and 20–24. To calculate adolescent birth and pregnancy rates, we used the first live birth at ages 10–14 and 15–19 years reported by women aged 15–19 and 20–24 years, respectively, along with estimates of annual incidence rates reported by women aged 20–24 years. We conducted conditional inference tree analyses using 52 variables to identify characteristics associated with adolescent pregnancies.ResultsThe number of first live births reported by women aged 20–24 years was 361 during the study period. Adolescent pregnancies and live births decreased from 2004 to 2009 and thereafter increased up to 2014. The adolescent pregnancy incidence (persons-years) trend dropped from 2001 (75.1 per 1000) to 2007 (27.2 per 1000), followed by a steep upward trend from 2007 to 2008 (19.1 per 1000) that increased in 2013 (26.5 per 1000). Associated factors with adolescent pregnancy were living in low-education households, where most adults in the household were working, and high proportion of adolescent pregnancies in the local community. Wealth was not linked to teenage pregnancies.ConclusionsInterventions to prevent adolescent pregnancy are imperative and must bear into account the context that influences the culture of early motherhood and lead to socioeconomic and health gains in resource-poor settings.

【 授权许可】

CC BY