Understanding spatiotemporal patterns of typhoon storm surge disasters based on their tropical cyclone track clusters in China

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

Genserik Reniers¹  Yongsheng Yang²  Quanyi Huang²  Ke Wang³ 

[1] CEDON, KU Leuven, Brussels, Belgiu;Safety and Security Science Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherland;Faculty of Applied Economics, Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security (ARGoSS), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgiu;Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chin;Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chin;Institute of Public Safety Research, Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chin;Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Chin;CEDON, KU Leuven, Brussels, Belgiu;

关键词: Typhoon storm surge disaster;    spatiotemporal patterns;    tropical cyclone tracks;    track clustering;    mitigation measures;   

DOI  :  10.1080/19475705.2021.1973120

来源: Taylor & Francis

【 摘 要 】

Typhoon storm surge disasters have garnered much attention because of their catastrophic damages. We investigated spatiotemporal patterns of typhoon storm surge disasters based on their tropical cyclone track clusters to support disaster mitigation in China. We aggregated 172 typhoon storm surge disasters in the entire cluster. Then, we used the extended Finite-Mixture-Model to categorize these 172 disasters into three clusters according to their track clusters (westward, northward, and westward shift at the coastline). In general, not all temporal distributions of the frequency and damage showed significant trends in the entire cluster and three clusters from 1983–2018. Between 1983‒2000 and 2001‒2018, the average annual frequency increased, and average annual direct economic loss and average annual fatalities decreased in the entire cluster. Although most temporal patterns in the three clusters were similar to those in the entire cluster, a positive growth ratio in the average annual direct economic loss was apparent between 1983‒2000 and 2001‒2018 in Cluster 3. For spatial patterns, southern and eastern regions were more affected by typhoon storm surge disasters than northern regions. In northern regions, Cluster 2 recorded the most disaster occurrences, direct economic losses, and fatalities. Track characteristics and mitigation measures were introduced to help understand disaster spatiotemporal patterns in the entire cluster and three clusters.

【 授权许可】

CC BY