Optimal decision making in post-hazard bridge recovery strategies for transportation networks after seismic events

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

Sungsik Yoon¹  Wonho Suh²  Young-Joo Lee³ 

[1] Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, US;Department of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Republic of Kore;Department of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology Ulsan, Republic of Kore;

关键词: Benefit–cost analysis;    optimal restoration strategy;    seismic resilience;    transportation network;    total system travel time;    artificial neural network;   

DOI  :  10.1080/19475705.2021.1961881

来源: Taylor & Francis

【 摘 要 】

In this study, optimal post-hazard bridge recovery strategies were proposed for transportation networks under seismic conditions. To predict the performance of the transportation network, a robust performance measure, total system travel time (TSTT), was employed, and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based surrogate model was developed to enable an accelerated Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the benefit–cost ratio was proposed to support optimal decision making immediately after an earthquake. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, an actual transportation network in South Korea was adopted, and a network map was reconstructed based on geographic information system (GIS) data. A surrogate model for network performance evaluation was constructed using training data generated based on historical earthquake epicenters. In addition, the damage ratio and required recovery days according to the damage states of bridges were employed to perform network recovery analysis. For the numerical analysis, a limited budget was set for each scenario, and the recovery and damage curve were compared with existing priority strategy. The numerical results showed that the priority strategy of bridge restoration determined through the benefit–cost analysis generated a faster recovery curve and significantly reduced the damage, as compared to existing strategy. Therefore, it is concluded that the proposed methodology enables optimal decision making and also helps risk management that can minimize the economic damage.

【 授权许可】

CC BY