How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

eLife

Nicole Nova¹  Johannah E Farner¹  Mallory J Harris¹  Lisa I Couper¹  Erin A Mordecai¹  Jamie M Caldwell²  Marta Shocket³  Moises Exposito-Alonso⁴  Devin G Kirk⁵  Eloise B Skinner⁶  Lawrence H Uricchio⁷  Marissa L Childs⁸ 

[1] Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Department of Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, United States;Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States;Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Department of Plant Biology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, United States;Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Department of Zoology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia;Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, United States;Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, United States;

关键词: climate change;    adaptation;    evolutionary rescue;    vector;    mosquito;    pest;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.69630

来源: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd

【 摘 要 】

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

【 授权许可】

CC BY