A nomogram for predicting postoperative pulmonary infection in esophageal cancer patients

BMC Pulmonary Medicine

Gongchao Wang¹  Qiyu Sui¹  Jingwen Su¹  Shuang Li¹ 

[1] School of Nursing and Rehabilitation, Shandong University, 250012, Jinan, China;

关键词: Esophageal cancer;    Postoperative pulmonary infection;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12890-021-01656-7

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAlthough postoperative pulmonary infection (POI) commonly occurs in patients with esophageal cancer after curative surgery, a patient-specific predictive model is still lacking. The main aim of this study is to construct and validate a nomogram for estimating the risk of POI by investigating how perioperative features contribute to POI.MethodsThis cohort study enrolled 637 patients with esophageal cancer. Perioperative information on participants was collected to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting postoperative pulmonary infection in esophageal cancer. Predictive accuracy, discriminatory capability, and clinical usefulness were evaluated by calibration curves, concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsMultivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that length of stay, albumin, intraoperative bleeding, and perioperative blood transfusion were independent predictors of POI. The nomogram for assessing individual risk of POI indicated good predictive accuracy in the primary cohort (C-index, 0.802) and validation cohort (C-index, 0.763). Good consistency between predicted risk and observed actual risk was presented as the calibration curve. The nomogram for estimating POI of esophageal cancer had superior net benefit with a wide range of threshold probabilities (4–81%).ConclusionsThe present study provided a nomogram developed with perioperative features to assess the individual probability of infection may conducive to strengthen awareness of infection control and provide appropriate resources to manage patients at high risk following esophagectomy.

【 授权许可】

CC BY