Comparing different generations of idealized solar geoengineering simulations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

article

Kravitz, Ben¹  Niemeier, Ulrike³  Robock, Alan⁴  Séférian, Roland⁵  Tilmes, Simone⁶  MacMartin, Douglas G.⁷  Visioni, Daniele⁷  Boucher, Olivier⁸  Cole, Jason N. S.⁹  Haywood, Jim^1,10  Jones, Andy^1,11  Lurton, Thibaut⁸  Nabat, Pierre⁵ 

[1] Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University;Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory;Max Planck Institute for Meteorology;Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University;Université de Toulouse;Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research;Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University;Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Sorbonne Université/CNRS;Environment and Climate Change Canada;College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter;UK Met Office Hadley Centre

DOI  :  10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021

学科分类：大气科学

来源: Copernicus Publications

【 摘 要 】

Solar geoengineering has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a potential temporary solution to offset global warming. One method of approximating global-scale solar geoengineering in climate models is via solar reduction experiments. Two generations of models in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have now simulated offsetting a quadrupling of the CO 2 concentration with solar reduction. This simulation is idealized and designed to elicit large responses in the models. Here, we show that energetics, temperature, and hydrological cycle changes in this experiment are statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles. Of the variables analyzed here, the only major differences involve highly parameterized and uncertain processes, such as cloud forcing or terrestrial net primary productivity. We conclude that despite numerous structural differences and uncertainties in models over the past two generations of models, including an increase in climate sensitivity in the latest generation of models, the models are consistent in their aggregate climate response to global solar dimming.

【 授权许可】

CC BY