Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

BMC Public Health

Muhammad Ikram¹  Zhang Jianglin²  Shazia Rehman³  Erum Rehman⁴ 

[1] College of Management, Research Institute of Business Analytics and Supply Chain, Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China;Department of Dermatology, Shenzhen People’s Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The first Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, 518020, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China;Candidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, 518020, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China;Department of Dermatology, Shenzhen People’s Hospital, The Second Clinical Medical College, Jinan University, The first Affiliated Hospital, Southern University of Science and Technology, 518020, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China;Candidate Branch of National Clinical Research Center for Skin Diseases, 518020, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China;Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China;Department of Mathematics& Statistics, School of Statistics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China;

关键词: Cardiovascular disease;    CVD;    Relative growth rate;    Doubling time model, assessment, forecast;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-11334-2

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe study aims to predict and assess cardiovascular disease (CVD) patterns in highly affected countries such as Pakistan, India, China, Kenya, the USA, and Sweden. The data for CVD deaths was gathered from 2005 to 2019.MethodsWe utilized non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM) to predict growth of cardiovascular deaths in selected countries. We take this process a step further by utilizing novel Synthetic Relative Growth Rate (RGR) and Synthetic Doubling Time (Dt) model to assess how many years it takes to reduce the cardiovascular deaths double in numbers.ResultsThe results reveal that the USA and China may lead in terms of raising its number of deaths caused by CVDs till 2027. However, doubling time model suggests that USA may require 2.3 years in reducing the cardiovascular deaths.ConclusionsThis study is significant for the policymakers and health practitioners to ensure the execution of CVD prevention measures to overcome the growing burden of CVD deaths.

【 授权许可】

CC BY