The U-shaped crime recovery during COVID-19: evidence from national crime rates in Mexico

Crime Science

Lauren Hoehn-Velasco¹  Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar²  Adan Silverio-Murillo³ 

[1] Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA;Business and Economics School, Universidad Anahuac Mexico, Av. Universidad Anáhuac 46, 52786, Huixquilucan, Mexico;School of Government, Tecnologico de Monterrey, Mexico City, Mexico;

关键词: Crime;    Pandemic;    Lockdown;    COVID-19;    Mexico;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40163-021-00147-8

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

【 授权许可】

CC BY