Dependence of skill and spread of the ensemble forecasts on the type of perturbation and its relationship with long-term norms of precipitation and temperature

Acta Geophysica

article

Duniec, Grzegorz¹  Mazur, Andrzej¹ 

[1] Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute

关键词: Meteorological model;    Ensemble prediction system;    COSMO;    Perturbation schemes;    Long-term norms;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s11600-020-00467-4

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: Polska Akademia Nauk * Instytut Geofizyki

【 摘 要 】

A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Increasing computing power enabled the implementation of ensemble prediction system forecasts in the operational mode and the use of a new computer for research purposes. As part of the priority project on “Study of Disturbances in the Representation of Modeling Uncertainty in Ensemble Development” and the earlier project entitled “COSMO Towards Ensemble in Km in Our Countries), implemented in the Working Group 7 (Predictability and Ensemble Methods) as part of the COSMO modeling consortium, specific studies were carried out to test ensemble forecasts. This research concerned the impact of variability of physical fields characterizing the soil surface (a selected parameter determining evaporation from the soil surface and soil surface temperature) using various methods of perturbation. Numerical experiments were completed for the warm period (from June to September) 2013.

【 授权许可】

Unknown