New macroseismic intensity predictive models for Turkey

Acta Geophysica

article

Bayrak, Erdem¹  Nas, Murat²  Bayrak, Yusuf³ 

[1] Department of Geological Engineering, Oltu Earth Sciences Faculty, Ataturk University;Department of Civil Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University;Department of Geophysical Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University

关键词: Macroseismicity;    Macroseismic intensity;    Earthquake hazard;    Earthquake early warning;    Attenuation relations;    Seismicity of Turkey;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s11600-019-00357-4

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: Polska Akademia Nauk * Instytut Geofizyki

【 摘 要 】

In this study, we propose new attenuation relations for use in possible future macroseismicity-based analyses for Turkey. The most significant difference of the new relationships is that they are specifically designed for use in the full extent of Turkey. Besides, this paper supplies an extensive macroseismic database larger than ever collected for Turkey. To this end, a modifiable MATLAB program, which is fully presented in the electronic supplement to this paper, was written to analyze the collected isoseismal maps that were first geo-rectified and then gridded by dividing them into 0.02° arrays. The epicentral distances belonging to each point intersected with the pertinent isoseism were compiled in an event-based log. Then, all subsets were merged into a single dataset, which is presented in the electronic supplement. Required strong ground motion parameters were taken from an improved earthquake catalog recently given by Kadirioğlu et al. (B Earthq Eng 1:2, 2016). For modeling the relations, the early relations were mostly selected as patterns for our candidate attenuation models. Of all candidate models, the statistically significant ones were individually tested whether or not they were able to detect the best fitting model to our database. The predicted error margins of the proposed models were compared to those of early models using data-driven statistical tests. In conclusion, considering the usability limits, the estimation capabilities of proposed relationships were found to be useful to some extent than those of the early models developed for Turkey.

【 授权许可】

Unknown