Dynamics of a stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model with jump-diffusion

Advances in Difference Equations

article

Tesfay, Almaz¹  Saeed, Tareq³  Zeb, Anwar⁴  Tesfay, Daniel¹  Khalaf, Anas¹  Brannan, James⁵ 

[1] School of Mathematics and Statistics & Center for Mathematical Sciences, Huazhong University of Science and Technology;Department of Mathematics, Mekelle University;Department of Mathematics, King Abdulaziz University;Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad;Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University

关键词: Brownian motion;    Lévy noise;    Stochastic COVID-19 model;    Extinction;    Persistence;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13662-021-03396-8

学科分类：航空航天科学

来源: SpringerOpen

【 摘 要 】

For a stochastic COVID-19 model with jump-diffusion, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. We also investigate some conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease. We calculate the threshold of the stochastic epidemic system which determines the extinction or permanence of the disease at different intensities of the stochastic noises. This threshold is denoted by ξ which depends on white and jump noises. The effects of these noises on the dynamics of the model are studied. The numerical experiments show that the random perturbation introduced in the stochastic model suppresses disease outbreak as compared to its deterministic counterpart. In other words, the impact of the noises on the extinction and persistence is high. When the noise is large or small, our numerical findings show that COVID-19 vanishes from the population if$\xi 1$ . From this, we observe that white noise and jump noise have a significant effect on the spread of COVID-19 infection, i.e., we can conclude that the stochastic model is more realistic than the deterministic one. Finally, to illustrate this phenomenon, we put some numerical simulations.

【 授权许可】

CC BY