Spatial pattern of the population casualty rate caused by super typhoon Lekima and quantification of the interactive effects of potential impact factors

BMC Public Health

Xiaojun Xu¹  Changxiu Cheng²  Xiangxue Zhang³  Juan Nie⁴  Bin Yan⁵  Chengdong Xu⁵ 

[1] College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, 510642, Guangzhou, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;National Tibetan Plateau Data Center, 100101, Beijing, China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, 100875, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Emergency Management, 100124, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China;

关键词: GeoDetector;    Lekima;    Spatial pattern;    Population casualty;    Interactive effects;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-021-11281-y

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTyphoons greatly threaten human life and property, especially in China. Therefore, it is important to make effective policy decisions to minimize losses associated with typhoons.MethodsIn this study, the GeoDetector method was used to quantify the determinant powers of natural and socioeconomic factors, and their interactions, on the population casualty rate of super typhoon Lekima. The local indicator of spatial association (LISA) method was followed to explore the spatial pattern of the population casualty rate under the influence of the identified dominant factors.ResultsBoth natural and socioeconomic factors were found to have significantly impacted the population casualty rate due to super typhoon Lekima. Among the selected factors, maximum precipitation was dominant factor (q = 0.56), followed by maximum wind speed (q = 0.45). In addition, number of health technicians (q = 0.35) and number of health beds (q = 0.27) have a strong influence on the population casualty rate. Among the interactive effects of 12 influencing factors, the combined effects of maximum precipitation and ratio of brick-wood houses, the maximum precipitation and ratio of steel-concrete houses, maximum precipitation and number of health technicians were highest (q = 0.72). Furthermore, high-risk areas with very high casualty rates were concentrated in the southeastern part of Zhejiang and northern Shandong Provinces, while lower-risk areas were mainly distributed in northern Liaoning and eastern Jiangsu provinces.ConclusionsThese results contribute to the development of more specific policies aimed at safety and successful property protection according to the regional differences during typhoons.

【 授权许可】

CC BY