Conventional risk prediction models fail to accurately predict mortality risk among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in intensive care units: a difficult time to assess clinical severity and quality of care

Journal of Intensive Care

Tomoyuki Nakamura¹  Shunsuke Takaki²  Yoshitaka Aoki³  Satoru Hashimoto⁴  Hiromasa Irie⁵  Hiroyuki Ohbe⁶  Junji Kumasawa⁷  Hiroshi Okamoto⁸  Masatoshi Uchida⁹  Junji Hatakeyama^1,10  Katsura Hayakawa^1,11  Hiroaki Miyata^1,12  Nao Ichihara^1,13  Hideki Endo^1,14  Hidenobu Shigemitsu^1,15  Ryo Uchimido^1,15  Kohei Takimoto^1,16  Hiroshi Kurosawa^1,17  Tatsuya Kawasaki^1,18  Eiji Hashiba^1,19  Takehiko Asaga^2,20  Shigehiko Uchino^2,21 

[1] Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Fujita Health University School of Medicine, 1-98 Dengakugakubo, Kutsukake-cho, 470-1192, Toyoake, Aichi, Japan;Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Yokohama City University, 3-9 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, 236-0004, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan;Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Hamamatsu University School of Medicine, 1-20-1 Handayama, Higashi-ku, Hamamatsu, 431-3192, Shizuoka, Japan;Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, 465 Kajii-cho, Kawaramachi-Hirokoji, Kamigyo-ku, 602-8566, Kyoto, Japan;Department of Anesthesiology, Kurashiki Central Hospital, 1-1-1 Miwa, Kurashiki, 710-8602, Okayama, Japan;Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0033, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Critical Care Medicine, Sakai City Medical Center, 1-1-1 Ebaraji-cho, Nishi-ku, Sakai, 593-8304, Osaka, Japan;Department of Critical Care Medicine, St. Luke’s International Hospital, 9-1 Akashi-cho, Chuo-ku, 104-8560, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Dokkyo Medical University, 880 Kitakobayashi, Mibu-machi, Shimotsuga-gun, 321-0293, Tochigi, Japan;Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, National Hospital Organization Tokyo Medical Center, 2-5-1, Higashigaoka, Meguro-ku, 152-8902, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Saitama Red Cross Hospital, 1-5 Shintoshin, Chuo-ku, 330-8553, Saitama, Japan;Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, 160-8582, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8655, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8655, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, 35 Shinanomachi, Shinjuku-ku, 160-8582, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, 1-5-45 Yushima, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8519, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Kameda Medical Center, 929 Higashi-cho, Kamogawa, 296-8602, Chiba, Japan;Department of Pediatric Critical Care Medicine, Hyogo Prefectural Kobe Children’s Hospital, 1-6-7 Minatojima Minamimachi, Chuo-ku, 650-0047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan;Department of Pediatric Critical Care, Shizuoka Children’s Hospital, 860 Urushiyama, Aoi-ku, 420-8660, Shizuoka, Shizuoka, Japan;Division of Intensive Care, Hirosaki University Hospital, 53 Honcho, Hirosaki, 036-8203, Aomori, Japan;Intensive Care Unit, Kagawa University Hospital, 1750-1 Ikenobe, Miki-cho, 761-0793, Kita-gun, Kagawa, Japan;Intensive Care Unit, The Jikei University School of Medicine, 3-19-18 Nishi-Shinbashi, Minato-ku, 105-8471, Tokyo, Japan;

关键词: Coronavirus disease 2019;    Risk of death;    Intensive care unit;    Risk prediction model;    Quality improvement;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s40560-021-00557-5

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Since the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it has remained unknown whether conventional risk prediction tools used in intensive care units are applicable to patients with COVID-19. Therefore, we assessed the performance of established risk prediction models using the Japanese Intensive Care database. Discrimination and calibration of the models were poor. Revised risk prediction models are needed to assess the clinical severity of COVID-19 patients and monitor healthcare quality in ICUs overwhelmed by patients with COVID-19.

【 授权许可】

CC BY