The Effect of An Emergency Evacuation on the Spread of COVID19

Frontiers in Physics

Maurizio Porfiri¹  Sachit Butail² 

[1] Brooklyn, NY, United States;Brooklyn, NY, United States;Brooklyn, NY, United States;DeKalb, IL, United States;

关键词: COVID19;    evacuation;    aerosol;    crowds;    proximity;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fphy.2020.631264

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

In an emergency evacuation, people almost always come in close proximity as they quickly leave a built environment under a potential threat. With COVID19, this situation presents yet another challenge: that of getting unintentionally exposed to an infected individual. To assess the epidemiological consequences of an emergency evacuation, we expanded a popular pedestrian dynamic model to enable social distancing during a normal exit and analyze the effect of possible transmission through respiratory droplets and aerosol. Computer simulations point to a troubling outcome, whereby the benefits of a quick exit could be outweighed by the risk of infection.

【 授权许可】

CC BY