Epidemics Forecast From SIR-Modeling, Verification and Calculated Effects of Lockdown and Lifting of Interventions

Frontiers in Physics

R. Schlickeiser¹  M. Kröger² 

[1] Bochum, Germany;Kiel, Germany;Zurich, Switzerland;

关键词: coronavirus (2019-nCoV);    statistical analysis;    pandemic spreading;    time-dependent infection rate;    parameter estimation;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fphy.2020.593421

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Due to the current COVID-19 epidemic plague hitting the worldwide population it is of utmost medical, economical and societal interest to gain reliable predictions on the temporal evolution of the spreading of the infectious diseases in human populations. Of particular interest are the daily rates and cumulative number of new infections, as they are monitored in infected societies, and the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions due to different lockdown measures as well as their subsequent lifting on these infections. Estimating quantitatively the influence of a later lifting of the interventions on the resulting increase in the case numbers is important to discriminate this increase from the onset of a second wave. The recently discovered new analytical solutions of Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model allow for such forecast. In particular, it is possible to test lockdown and lifting interventions because the new solutions hold for arbitrary time dependence of the infection rate. Here we present simple analytical approximations for the rate and cumulative number of new infections.

【 授权许可】

CC BY