Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Contributions to the Signals from the Tide Gauges of China

Nonlinear engineering: Modeling and application

article

Albert Parker

关键词: Sea level rise;    tide gauges;    land subsidence;    climate change;   

DOI  :  10.1515/nleng-2015-0033

来源: De Gruyter

【 摘 要 】

The tide gauges measure the local oscillations of the sea level vs. the tide gauge instrument. The tide gauge instrument is generally subjected to the general subsidence or uplift of the nearby inland, plus some additional subsidence for land compaction and other localised phenomena. The paper proposes a non-linear model of the relative sea level oscillations including a long term trend for the absolute sea level rise, another term for the subsidence of the instrument, and finally a sinusoidal approximation for the cyclic oscillations of periodicities up to decades. This non-linear model is applied to the tide gauges of China. The paper shows that the limited information available for China does not permit to infer any proper trend for the relative rates of rise, as the tide gauge records are all short or incomplete and the vertical movement of the tide gauge instruments is unassessed. The only tide gauge record of sufficient length that may be assembled for China is obtained by combining the North Point and Quarry Bay tide gauges in Hong Kong (NPQB). This NQPB composite tide gauge record is shown to have similarities with the tide gauge records of Sydney, equally in the West pacific, and San Diego, in the east Pacific, oscillating about the longer term trend mostly determined by the local subsidence. As it is very well known that China generally suffers of land subsidence, and the tide gauge installations may suffer of additional subsidence vs. the inland, it may be concluded from the analysis of the other worldwide tide gauges that the sea levels of China are very likely rising about the same amount of the subsidence of the tide gauges, with the sea level acceleration component still negligible.

【 授权许可】

Unknown