The Sure-Thing Principle

Journal of Causal Inference

article

Judea Pearl¹ 

[1] Computer Science Department, University of California

关键词: JCI;    Judea Pearl;    UCLA;   

DOI  :  10.1515/jci-2016-0005

来源: De Gruyter

【 摘 要 】

In 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. Here, we trace the history of the principle, discuss some of its nuances, and evaluate its significance in the light of modern understanding of causal reasoning.

【 授权许可】

CC BY