A Static-99R Validation Study on Individuals With Mental Disorders: 5 to 20 Years of Fixed Follow-Up After Sexual Offenses

Frontiers in Psychology

Christian Baudin¹  Peter Andiné²  Thomas Nilsson²  Märta Wallinius³  Joakim Sturup⁴ 

[1] Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;Department of Forensic Psychiatry, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Gothenburg, Sweden;Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;Department of Forensic Psychiatry, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Gothenburg, Sweden;Forensic Psychiatric Clinic, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden;Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;Research Department, Regional Forensic Psychiatric Clinic Växjö, Växjö, Sweden;Lund Clinical Research on Externalizing and Developmental Psychopathology, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden;Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;Swedish Police Authority, Stockholm, Sweden;

关键词: Static-99R;    validation;    sex offender;    mental disorder;    risk;    risk assessment;    discrimination;    calibration;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2021.625996

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

‘The Static-99R is one of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. It has been validated for use on many populations, but few studies specifically target and describe individuals with mental disorders. Additionally, research on the discriminative properties (how well the instrument separates recidivists from non-recidivists) of the instrument over longer follow-up periods is scarce. This article evaluated the validity of the Static-99R using a cohort of individuals with mental disorders convicted of sexual offenses in Sweden (N = 146) with fixed 5-year (n = 100), 10-year (n = 91), 15-year (n = 79), and 20-year (n = 36) follow-up periods. A Static-99R cut score of 6 demonstrated the highest Youden index, maximizing sensitivity (72.7%) and specificity (74.2%), with 25.8% of recidivists correctly assumed to reoffend sexually and 95.7% of non-recidivists correctly assumed not to. The Static-99R instrument demonstrated adequate discrimination (AUC = 0.79, CI 95% = 0.70–0.87, and OR = 1.45, CI 95% = 1.14–1.84, p < 0.001, 5-year fixed follow-up), with only marginal differences for 10-, 15-, and 20-year fixed follow-up (AUC = 0.73, 0.74, and 0.74 and OR = 1.31, 1.36, and 1.40, respectively). Calibration (quantifying risk and correspondence with the instrument’s norms) was acceptable (Brier = 0.088, P/E = 0.70, E/O = 1.43), with the routine sample norms displaying a decisively better fit to the study cohort compared to the high-risk/high-need sample norms. The results affirm the recommendation that, when in doubt and where there is no recent local norm group large enough available, the Static-99R routine sample found in the evaluators’ workbook should be used.

【 授权许可】

CC BY