Influence of air temperature on the first flowering date of Prunus yedoensis Matsum

Ecology and Evolution

Peijian Shi²  Zhenghong Chen⁴  Qingpei Yang¹  Marvin K. Harris³ 

[1] College of Forestry, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, China;Key Laboratory of Sustainable Development of Marine Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture, Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Qingdao, China;Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, TX;Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan, China

关键词: Accumulated degree days (ADD);    base temperature;    correlation coefficient;    root mean square error;    starting date;   

DOI  :  10.1002/ece3.442

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have a significant effect on the first flowering date (FFD) in plants flowering in early spring. Prunus yedoensis Matsum is a good model plant for analyzing this effect. In this study, we used a degree day model to analyze the effect of air temperatures on the FFDs of P. yedoensis at Wuhan University from a long-time series from 1951 to 2012. First, the starting date (=7 February) is determined according to the lowest correlation coefficient between the FFD and the daily average accumulated degree days (ADD). Second, the base temperature (=−1.2°C) is determined according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between the observed and predicted FFDs based on the mean of 62-year ADDs. Finally, based on this combination of starting date and base temperature, the daily average ADD of every year was calculated. Performing a linear fit of the daily average ADD to year, we find that there is an increasing trend that indicates climate warming from a biological climatic indicator. In addition, we find that the minimum annual temperature also has a significant effect on the FFD of P. yedoensis using the generalized additive model. This study provides a method for analyzing the climate change on the FFD in plants' flowering in early spring.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2013 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.