Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

Ecology and Evolution

Chris J. Harvey¹  Pamela E. Moriarty² 

[1]Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E, Seattle, Washington 98112

[2]Biology and Mathematics Departments, Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio 43022

关键词: Bald eagles;    bioenergetics models;    climate change;    ecosystems;    food webs;    predation;    regional climate models;    salmon;    scavenging;   

DOI  :  10.1002/ece3.204

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC   
© 2011 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.