Climate change and habitat fragmentation drive the occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the agent of Lyme disease, at the northeastern limit of its distribution

Evolutionary Applications

Julie A. Simon⁸  Robby R. Marrotte⁸  Nathalie Desrosiers³  Jessica Fiset⁹  Jorge Gaitan⁸  Andrew Gonzalez⁴  Jules K. Koffi⁶  Francois-Joseph Lapointe⁹  Patrick A. Leighton¹  Lindsay R. Lindsay⁷  Travis Logan²  Francois Milord⁵  Nicholas H. Ogden¹  Anita Rogic⁸  Emilie Roy-Dufresne⁸  Daniel Suter⁸  Nathalie Tessier⁹ 

[1] Groupe de recherche en épidémiologie des zoonoses et santé publique Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire, Université de Montréal, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada;Ouranos Consortium, Montreal, QC, Canada;Ministère du Développement Durable, de l'Environnement, de la Faune et des Parcs du, Québec City, QC, Canada;Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada;Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Longueuil, QC, Canada;Zoonoses Division, Centre for Food-Borne, Environmental & Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, Canada;Zoonoses & Special Pathogens Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB, Canada;Redpath Museum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada;Département des Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada

关键词: climate change;    emergence;    habitat fragmentation;    Lyme disease;    range shift;    white‐footed mouse;   

DOI  :  10.1111/eva.12165

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Lyme borreliosis is rapidly emerging in Canada, and climate change is likely a key driver of the northern spread of the disease in North America. We used field and modeling approaches to predict the risk of occurrence of Borrelia burgdorferi, the bacteria causing Lyme disease in North America. We combined climatic and landscape variables to model the current and future (2050) potential distribution of the black-legged tick and the white-footed mouse at the northeastern range limit of Lyme disease and estimated a risk index for B. burgdorferi from these distributions. The risk index was mostly constrained by the distribution of the white-footed mouse, driven by winter climatic conditions. The next factor contributing to the risk index was the distribution of the black-legged tick, estimated from the temperature. Landscape variables such as forest habitat and connectivity contributed little to the risk index. We predict a further northern expansion of B. burgdorferi of approximately 250–500 km by 2050 – a rate of 3.5–11 km per year – and identify areas of rapid rise in the risk of occurrence of B. burgdorferi. Our results will improve understanding of the spread of Lyme disease and inform management strategies at the most northern limit of its distribution.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© 2014 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.