The Effect of Applying Alternate IPCC Climate Scenarios to Marine Reserve Design for Range Changing Species

Conservation Letters

Azusa Makino³  Carissa J. Klein³  Hugh P. Possingham³  Hiroya Yamano²  Yumiko Yara²  Toshinori Ariga¹  Keisuke Matsuhasi¹ 

[1] Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

关键词: Climate change;    climate model;    coral;    IPCC;    marine conservation;    marine protected area;    Marxan;    Representative Concentration Pathway;    sea‐surface temperature;    spatial prioritization;   

DOI  :  10.1111/conl.12147

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Effectively protecting of biodiversity in the future relies on reserves that accommodate potential climate change impacts. Climate predictions are based on plausible ranges of greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the IPCC, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). It is unknown how different scenarios influence spatial prioritization, particularly for species that change their range due to climate change. Using corals in Japan, we explore differences in priorities under three RCPs (RCP8.5, 4.5, and 2.6), comparing three time frames (current conditions, near future, and distant future). We targeted three temperature zones representing different coral community types, determined from predictions of sea-surface temperature for three RCPs. Results showed that using one RCP prediction to design a reserve system does a poor job at meeting conservation targets for other RCPs, missing up to 100% of the targets. We emphasize the importance of focusing conservation investment in “no regrets” areas that are important under every RCP.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
Copyright and Photocopying: © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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