Environmental Derivatives, Risk Analysis, and Conservation Management

Conservation Letters

L. Richard Little¹  John Parslow¹  Gavin Fay¹  R. Quentin Grafton²  Anthony D.M. Smith¹  André E. Punt¹ 

[1] CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, Hobart, TAS, Australia;Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

关键词: Bio‐economic modeling;    conservation finance;    environmental derivatives;    environmental risk analysis;    management strategy evaluation;    recovery costs;    restoration;   

DOI  :  10.1111/conl.12041

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Two key challenges in conservation management are: (1) how to quantify and manage the risk that natural populations will fall below critical thresholds and (2) how to fund recovery plans should a population do so. Statistically estimated, process-based simulation models of two distinct fish populations are used to forecast the species population levels, and capture the risk of crossing a management defined trigger point. We show how to calculate the environmental derivative price, which is the amount a risk-neutral investor would require for promising a pay-out should the species abundance fall below the trigger level. The approach provides the potential for environmental derivatives to support species recovery, and a method for measuring the underlying “health” of a managed population and calculating risk-cost tradeoffs among alternative management strategies.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC   
©2013 The Authors. Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.