Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area

Frontiers in Public Health

Maria-Cristina Marinescu¹  Concepción Delgado-Sanz²  Diana Gomez-Barroso²  Jesus Carretero³  Christian Durán³  Miguel Guzmán-Merino³  David E. Singh³ 

[1] Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain;CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain;National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain;Department Computer Science, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, Spain;

关键词: COVID-19;    simulation;    social distancing;    mitigation policies;    face mask;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.

【 授权许可】

CC BY