A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures

Frontiers in Public Health

Tobias Fasth¹  Mats Danielson²  Adriana Mihai³  Love Ekenberg⁴  Nadejda Komendantova⁵ 

[1] Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista, Sweden;Department of Public Health Analysis and Data Management, Public Health Agency of Sweden, Solna, Sweden;Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista, Sweden;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria;Innovating Governance, Vienna, Austria;Centre of Excellence for the Study of Cultural Identity, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria;Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Kista, Sweden;Innovating Governance, Vienna, Austria;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria;Innovating Governance, Vienna, Austria;

关键词: multi-criteria decision analysis;    managing and mitigating the risk of COVID 19 pandemic;    risk governance;    SEIR models;    participation and inclusion;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2021.583706

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.

【 授权许可】

CC BY