How Do Economic Fluctuations Affect the Mortality of Infectious Diseases?

Frontiers in Public Health

Ran Tao¹  Ting-Ting Sun²  Muhammad Umar²  Chi-Wei Su² 

[1] Qingdao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Preventation, Qingdao, China;School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China;

关键词: economic fluctuations;    infectious diseases mortality;    mixed frequency vector autoregression model;    counter-cyclically;    China;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpubh.2021.678213

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

This paper uses the mixed frequency vector autoregression model to explore the impact of economic fluctuations on infectious diseases mortality (IDM) from China perspective. We find that quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations have a negative impact on the annual IDM, indicating that the mortality of infectious diseases varies counter-cyclically with the business cycle in China. Specifically, IDM usually increases with deterioration in economic conditions, and vice versa. The empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis I derived from the theoretical analysis, which highlights that economic fluctuations can negatively affect the mortality of infectious diseases. The findings can offer revelations for the government to consider the role of economic conditions in controlling the epidemic of infectious diseases. Policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of macroeconomic downturns on the mortality of infectious diseases. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, these analyses further emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and preventing and controlling foreign infectious diseases.

【 授权许可】

CC BY