Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences | |
Improving the Medium-Term Forecasting of Space Weather: A Big Picture Review From a Solar Observer's Perspective | |
Angelos Vourlidas1  | |
[1] null; | |
关键词: Sun; space weather; flares - Sun; coronal mass ejection; forecast; | |
DOI : 10.3389/fspas.2021.651527 | |
来源: Frontiers | |
【 摘 要 】
We have improved considerably our scientific understanding of the key solar drivers of Space Weather, i.e., Coronal Mass Ejections, flares, in the last 20+ years thanks to a plethora of space missions and modeling advances. Yet, a major breakthrough in assessing the geo-effectiveness of a given CME and associated phenomena still escapes us, holding back actionable medium-term (up to 7 days) forecasting of Space Weather. Why is that? I adopt a two-pronged approach to search for answers. First, I assess the last 20+ years of research on solar drivers by identifying lessons-learned and paradigm shifts in our view of solar activity, always in relation to Space Weather concerns. Then, I review the state of key observation-based quantities used in forecasting to isolate the choke points and research gaps that limit medium-term forecasting performance. Finally, I outline a path forward along three vectors—breakthrough capabilities, geo-effective potential, and actionable forecast—with the strongest potential to improve space weather forecasting horizon and robustness.
【 授权许可】
CC BY
【 预 览 】
Files | Size | Format | View |
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RO202107134032782ZK.pdf | 1772KB | download |