Climate-Fungal Pathogen Modeling Predicts Loss of Up to One-Third of Tea Growing Areas

Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology

Douglas A. Schaefer¹  Peter E. Mortimer¹  Kevin D. Hyde²  Jianchu Xu³  Samantha C. Karunarathna³  Saowaluck Tibpromma³  Ruvishika S. Jayawardena⁴  Ishara S. Manawasinghe⁴  Sailesh Ranjitkar⁵  Itthayakorn Promputtha⁶  Daniel P. Bebber⁷  Jun Sheng⁸  Yang Dong⁹ 

[1] CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming, China;CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming, China;Center of Excellence in Fungal Research, Mae Fah Luang University, Chiang Rai, Thailand;CAS Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Kunming, China;World Agroforestry Centre, East and Central Asia, Kunming, China;Centre for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, China;Center of Excellence in Fungal Research, Mae Fah Luang University, Chiang Rai, Thailand;Centre for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming, China;N. Gene Solution of Natural Innovation, Kathmandu, Nepal;Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand;Research Center in Bioresources for Agriculture, Industry and Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand;Department of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom;Key Laboratory for Agro-biodiversity and Pest Control of Ministry of Education, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, China;State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Bio-Resources in Yunnan, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, China;Yunnan Research Institute for Local Plateau Agriculture and Industry, Kunming, China;

关键词: Camellia sinensis;    climate change;    crop loss;    fungal diseases;    perennial crops;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fcimb.2021.610567

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Climate change will affect numerous crops in the future; however, perennial crops, such as tea, are particularly vulnerable. Climate change will also strongly influence fungal pathogens. Here, we predict how future climatic conditions will impact tea and its associated pathogens. We collected data on the three most important fungal pathogens of tea (Colletotrichum acutatum, Co. camelliae, and Exobasidium vexans) and then modeled distributions of tea and these fungal pathogens using current and projected climates. The models show that baseline tea-growing areas will become unsuitable for Camellia sinensis var. sinensis (15 to 32% loss) and C. sinensis var. assamica (32 to 34% loss) by 2050. Although new areas will become more suitable for tea cultivation, existing and potentially new fungal pathogens will present challenges in these areas, and they are already under other land-use regimes. In addition, future climatic scenarios suitable range of fungal species and tea suitable cultivation (respectively in CSS and CSA) growing areas are Co. acutatum (44.30%; 31.05%), Co. camelliae (13.10%; 10.70%), and E. vexans (10.20%; 11.90%). Protecting global tea cultivation requires innovative approaches that consider fungal genomics as part and parcel of plant pathology.

【 授权许可】

CC BY