Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index

Meteorological applications

article

Andrew J. Dowdy¹  Graham A. Mills¹  Klara Finkele¹  William de Groot⁴ 

[1] The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research: a partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology;Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre;Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology;Great Lakes Forestry Centre

关键词: forecasting;    indices;    wildfire;    bushfire;    extreme;    percentiles;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.170

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

A number of different methodologies are developed for examining the sensitivities of an index. These methodologies are applied to examine the characteristics of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) using 8 years of gridded data throughout Australia. Percentile changes in input conditions show that the indices are similar to each other in that they are both most sensitive to wind speed, then secondly to relative humidity and thirdly to temperature. On a finer scale, a combination of the relationship between the indices and their partial derivatives shows that the FFDI is relatively less sensitive to wind speed and rainfall, and more sensitive to temperature and relative humidity, than the FWI. A method based on equilibrium values of the indices shows that the FFDI has a temperature threshold set by recent rainfall above which its sensitivity increases, resulting in some non-linearity in its relationship with the FWI. The sensitivity differences between the indices mean that the indices are complementary in that they each respond to a somewhat different set of conditions, as is shown by examining a number of recent fire events. The fire events also reveal that index values associated with dangerous fire behaviour can vary greatly between different regions. Methods to reduce the consequences of this variation are examined, including the use of index percentiles.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND