Assessment of the return period of near-PMP point and catchment rainfall for England and Wales

Meteorological applications

article

Chris G. Collier¹  David G. Morris²  David A. Jones² 

[1] School of Earth and Environment, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds;Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

关键词: PMP;    return period;    mesoscale convective systems;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.191

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

The return periods of sub-daily rainfall events approaching Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) have been estimated for point locations and catchment areas using the assumptions made in a previously published storm model. It has been assumed that PMP of around 12 h duration is the result of severe thunderstorms for catchments up to about 200 km 2 and of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) for larger catchments. The analysis suggests return periods ranging from around 1 in 10 000 years for point locations to 1 in 500 000 years for large catchments, though these are very dependent on the assumptions. The results are compared with estimates from a number of other sources.

【 授权许可】

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