An ensemble based turbulence forecasting system

Meteorological applications

article

Philip G. Gill¹  Piers Buchanan¹ 

[1] Met Office

关键词: CAT;    verification;    MOGREPS;    turbulence;    ROC;    ensemble;    GADS;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1373

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Turbulence is a major source of weather-related aviation incidents. There are many different indicators used to try and predict where turbulence is likely to occur. The indicators are derived from deterministic models although they are often quoted as probabilities. This paper proposes the use of ensemble forecasts from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) to produce a probabilistic indicator of wind shear and convectively induced moderate or greater turbulence. An objective verification scheme using high-resolution automated aircraft observations from the Global Aircraft Data Set is used to compare the skill with the routinely available World Area Forecast Centre gridded turbulence forecasts. The forecasts are assessed globally over a 12 month period from November 2010 to October 2011 looking at the skill, reliability and economic value of the forecasts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND