A flexible approach to the objective verification of warnings

Meteorological applications

article

Michael A. Sharpe¹ 

[1] Department of Weather Science, Met Office

关键词: verification;    forecasting;    marine forecasts;    warnings;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1530

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Warning services are popular due to their conceptually simple nature; however, a simple approach to their verification can lead to misleading results, from which it can be difficult to diagnose poor from excellent performance, and when improvement is required it is often difficult to know where efforts should be focused. A flexible, systematic approach to the verification of warnings enables the performance to be evaluated in terms of space, time, intensity and confidence. This paper describes such an approach, which has been implemented at the Met Office. Flexibility is achieved via the introduction, and separate categorization, of near-hit and compound event types, enabling the spatial, temporal and effectual accuracy to be examined and the most significant errors diagnosed. An illustrative example of this methodology is included in this paper.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND