Mapping temperature using a Bayesian statistical method and a high accuracy surface modelling method in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China

Meteorological applications

article

Na Zhao¹  Ning Lu¹  Chuanfa Chen³  Han Li⁴  Tianxiang Yue¹  Lili Zhang¹  Yu Liu¹ 

[1] State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Applications;Geomatics College, Shandong University of Science and Technology;School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences

关键词: HASM;    Bayesian statistical method;    interpolator;    temperature;    Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region;   

DOI  :  10.1002/met.1657

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

A more accurate Bayesian statistical technique together with a high accuracy surface modelling method (HASM) was used to improve the accuracy of temperature fields in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, China. Bayesian statistical inference theory was first applied to fill missing daily values for meteorological stations on an annual scale. A mixed interpolator was then employed to simulate the annual mean temperature and was compared with other methods. The annual mean temperature was produced and the inter-decade change was investigated. The results show that the values filled by Bayesian statistical inference theory agree well with actual observations. A comparison with other interpolators shows that combining the Bayesian estimation method with the HASM gives better results than those of the other methods tested in this study. The construction of the annual mean temperature for 10 years shows the change interval and the spatial distribution of temperature in the BTH region. The annual temperature over 10 years changed from less than −1 °C in the northwest to more than 14 °C in the southeast. From 1981–1990 (T1) to 1991–2000 (T2) and T2 to 2001–2010 (T3) the temperature change was spatially stationary and varied mainly from −0.05 °C to 0.05 °C, except for some areas such as the southwest of Tangshan city and the south of Tianjin city where land cover and land use has exhibited large decadal variation during the past 30 years.

【 授权许可】

CC BY|CC BY-NC|CC BY-NC-ND