Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

People and Nature

article

Laura M. Pereira¹  Kathryn K. Davies⁴  Eefje den Belder⁵  Simon Ferrier⁶  Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen⁷  HyeJin Kim⁸  Jan J. Kuiper²  Sana Okayasu^1,10  Maria G. Palomo^1,11  Henrique M. Pereira⁸  Garry Peterson²  Jyothis Sathyapalan^1,13  Machteld Schoolenberg^1,10  Rob Alkemade^1,10  Sonia Carvalho Ribeiro^1,15  Alison Greenaway^1,16  Jennifer Hauck^1,17  Nicholas King^1,18  Tanya Lazarova^1,10  Federica Ravera^1,19  Nakul Chettri^2,21  William W. L. Cheung^2,22  Rob J. J. Hendriks^2,23  Grigoriy Kolomytsev^2,25  Paul Leadley^2,26  Jean-Paul Metzger^2,27  Karachepone N. Ninan^2,28  Ramon Pichs^2,29  Alexander Popp^3,30  Carlo Rondinini^3,31  Isabel Rosa^3,32  Detlef van Vuuren³  Carolyn J. Lundquist⁴ 

[1] Centre for Complex Systems in Transition, Stellenbosch University;Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University;Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University;National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research;Agrosystems Research, Wageningen University and Research;CSIRO Land and Water;Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University and Research;German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig;Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg;PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency;Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales Bernardino Rivadavia-CONICET;CIBIO (Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)–InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Universidade do Porto;National Institute for Rural Development and Panchayati Raj;Environmental Systems Analyses Group, Wageningen University and Research;Instituto Geociências, Universidade Federal Minas Gerais;Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research;CoKnow Consulting;Research Unit for Environmental Science & Management, North-West University;Chair in Agroecology and Food Systems – University of Victoria, Central University of Catalunya;Department of Geography, University of Girona;International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development;Institute for the Oceans and FIsheries, The University of British Columbia;Department of Strategy, Nature-Inclusive Society Group, Ministry of Agriculture;Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University;Department of Animal Monitoring and Conservation, I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology NAS of Ukraine;Université Paris-Saclay;Department of Ecology, Institute of Biosciences, University of Sao Paulo;Centre for Economics, Environment and Society;Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM);Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK);Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome;School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University;Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland

关键词: biodiversity;    futures;    IPBES;    models;    nature;    scenarios;    values;   

DOI  :  10.1002/pan3.10146

学科分类：护理学

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) entered into an iterative, participatory process that led to the development of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF). The NFF is a heuristic tool that captures diverse, positive relationships of humans with nature in the form of a triangle. It can be used both as a boundary object for continuously opening up more plural perspectives in the creation of desirable nature scenarios and as an actionable framework for developing consistent nature scenarios across multiple scales. Here we describe the methods employed to develop the NFF and how it fits into a longer term process to create transformative, multiscale scenarios for nature. We argue that the contribution of the NFF is twofold: (a) its ability to hold a plurality of perspectives on what is desirable , which enables the development of joint goals and visions and recognizes the possible convergence and synergies of measures to achieve these visions and (b), its multiscale functionality for elaborating scenarios and models that can inform decision-making at relevant levels, making it applicable across specific places and perspectives on nature. If humanity is to achieve its goal of a more sustainable and prosperous future rooted in a flourishing nature, it is critical to open up a space for more plural perspectives of human–nature relationships. As the global community sets out to develop new goals for biodiversity, the NFF can be used as a navigation tool helping to make diverse, desirable futures possible. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

【 授权许可】

CC BY