The association between extreme temperature and pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005–2016: a mixed method evaluation

BMC Infectious Diseases

Jia Yin¹  Xiaomei Li¹  Dongzhen Chen¹  Guoyong Ding¹  Xuena Liu¹  Yixin Zhang²  Shengyang Zhang²  Bingqin Dai²  Hua Lu³ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, No.619 Changcheng Road, 271016, Taian, Shandong Province, China;Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 250014, Jinan, Shandong Province, China;Taian Centers for Diseases Prevention Control, 271000, Taian, Shandong Province, China;

关键词: Pulmonary tuberculosis;    Extreme temperature;    Generalized additive model;    Meta-analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-021-06116-5

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe effects of extreme temperature on infectious diseases are complex and far-reaching. There are few studies to access the relationship of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) with extreme temperature. The study aimed to identify whether there was association between extreme temperature and the reported morbidity of PTB in Shandong Province, China, from 2005 to 2016.MethodsA generalized additive model (GAM) was firstly conducted to evaluate the relationship between daily reported incidence rate of PTB and extreme temperature events in the prefecture-level cities. Then, the effect estimates were pooled using meta-analysis at the provincial level. The fixed-effect model or random-effect model was selected based on the result of heterogeneity test.ResultsAmong the 446,016 PTB reported cases, the majority of reported cases occurred in spring. The higher reported incidence rate areas were located in Liaocheng, Taian, Linyi and Heze. Extreme low temperature had an impact on the reported incidence of PTB in only one prefecture-level city, i.e., Binzhou (RR = 0.903, 95% CI: 0.817–0.999). While, extreme high temperature was found to have a positive effect on reported morbidity of PTB in Binzhou (RR = 0.924, 95% CI: 0.856–0.997) and Weihai (RR = 0.910, 95% CI: 0.843–0.982). Meta-analysis showed that extreme high temperature was associated with a decreased risk of PTB (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.966–0.998). However, extreme low temperature was no relationship with the reported incidence of PTB.ConclusionOur findings are suggested that extreme high temperature has significantly decreased the risk of PTB at the provincial levels. The findings have implications for developing strategies to response to climate change.

【 授权许可】

CC BY